Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz issued a strong warning to Lebanon’s Hezbollah on Friday, cautioning them not to join in Israel-Iran conflict and escalate further regionally. His words reflect mounting worries in Jerusalem over a potential wider regional confrontation (breakingdefense.com/+1 for breaking defense news; thesun.ie/+1); Khaleejtimes.com +3 for Khaleej Times coverage, Reuter’s +3 and M.economictimes’ +3 ratings respectively).
Katz Delivered a Shocking Warning At a press briefing in Tel Aviv, Katz warned, “Israel’s tolerance for terrorists who threaten it has worn thin.” His statement came shortly after Hezbollah Deputy Secretary-General Sheikh Naim Qassem made statements indicating his group will respond in kind against what he termed as Israeli and American aggression against Iran, according to understandingwar.org +reuters +m.economictimes sources
Katz pointed out Hezbollah’s current restraint and warned it could end at any moment: if there is terror – there will be no Hezbollah.” His words indicate even defensive actions by Hezbollah could spark an aggressive Israeli response and bring swift reprisals. (TimesofIsrael.com/occupypalestinianstate ).
Hezbollah’s Calculated Tacit Posture
Thus far, Hezbollah has shown no indication it will open another front with Israel. A Hezbollah official told Reuters that they do not plan any attacks against Israel in retaliation for Tehran sanctions; analysts speculate the group is rebuilding itself after suffering heavy losses during last year’s conflict between it and Israel, which caused extensive casualties both among its ranks and infrastructure. Reuters.com. [R.H]Bn.com +14 | Arabnews.com plus 14
Breaking Defense reports that Lebanese civilians overwhelmingly oppose another war, prompting Hezbollah’s leadership to act cautiously: “… the Lebanese population sees no strategic or national benefit in further entangling their fragile country with Iran’s agenda…
the Guardian.com BreakingDefense.com Reuters.com on July 3, 2018.
Regional Balance at Stake
Katz and Hezbollah’s exchange illustrates growing fears of an Iranian, Israeli and their respective proxy escalation in the region. Tehran has engaged in missile strikes on Israeli targets in response to Jerusalem attacks against its nuclear and military infrastructure.
Hezbollah, one of Iran’s “Axis of Resistance,” along with Syria’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and Palestinian militants, remains its principal proxy in Israel’s northern border region. Their involvement could amplify and deepen any potential conflict and draw in Lebanon itself as well.
U.S. and Global Alarm
The United States has also highlighted the risks posed by Hezbollah entering Syria. U.S. Special Envoy Thomas Barrack said any involvement by Hezbollah would be “very, very bad decision”, urging Lebanon and Hezbollah to refrain and emphasizing that weaponry must remain under state control (Yahoo News +1) (reuters +1).
Western diplomats from Britain, Germany and France are working quickly to establish diplomatic channels with Iran via Geneva to prevent it from spiralling out of control, the Times.co.uk reports.
Potential Flashpoints Experts warn that Hezbollah could become an immediate target in any escalation of conflict, with even minor rocket or drone attacks from Lebanon triggering significant air and artillery retaliation from Israel.
Israel quickly attacks Hezbollah’s military infrastructure – weapon depots or firing positions- regardless of any overt actions being taken against them.
At This Point
Hezbollah remains on a defensive, offering rhetorical support for Iran while not operationally escalate. Katz’s warning that Jerusalem stands ready to strike even preemptively should Hezbollah cross any red lines indicates this possibility, placing Lebanon once more under siege from another conflict.
International players have called for de-escalation. Yet with Iran facing deep strikes from Israel and Hezbollah’s next moves determining whether this conflict escalates further into multi-front warfare, international actors remain concerned that further escalated action will ensue.
As Katz noted, time is fleeting–and if one loses patience too early, the consequences could be far reaching.