Intelligence sources in the United States have disclosed that Iran reportedly loaded naval mines onto vessels in the Persian Gulf during June, raising alarm in Washington that Tehran may be planning a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz as revenge against Israeli airstrikes on Iranian targets. Although no mines were actually deployed during this operation, officials told Reuters it marked a serious step by Tehran toward disrupting global oil trade iranintl.com +6 Reuter’s +6 TimesofIsrael +6
Iranian Military Has Mines on Board–But They Haven’t Laid Them According to two U.S. officials cited by Reuters, Iran’s military placed mines aboard ships in the Persian Gulf soon after Israel launched missile strikes targeting Iranian nuclear and military infrastructure on June 13. (Sources: TimesofIsrael.com and M.economictimes.com.)
Intelligence analysts see Iran’s plan to lay mines near one of the world’s key oil chokepoints as an indication that they may close one or more critical oil chokepoints; although none actually entered shipping lanes directly. As a result, experts consider its operation an indicator that its intentions may change – even though these mines never actually made contact with shipping lanes themselves (reuters.com/nl/151520957)
The Strait of Hormuz is an important artery for global energy supply–representing about 20% of daily oil and gas shipments via Reuter’s, Wikipedia, Economic Times or Mobile Times (ETMS).
An economic shock could result from either a closure or temporary disruption, prompting sharp spikes in commodity prices that send shockwaves through global economies. Analysts warn that even partial obstruction such as mining activity alerts markets and insurers, increasing tanker costs as well as downstream energy users costs (voir: En.wikipedia.org; Investors.com and M.economictimes for details).
Iran’s Political Position
This month, Iran’s parliament adopted a nonbinding resolution encouraging closure of the Strait of Hormuz but ultimate authority rests with the Supreme National Security Council [reuters.com +8 | ft.com | +8].
Revolutionary Guard officials have confirmed their intent to block waterways “whenever necessary to defend national sovereignty”. For more information about this subject, see this Wikipedia entry en.wikipedia.org/889238321+1 (en.wikipedia.org/889238321+1).
However, no official Iranian statement has confirmed deployment or intention to implement shutdown of mines.
Washington and Allied Response The U.S. quickly increased its naval presence in the region to demonstrate their resolve in keeping the strait open, sending mine-clearance ships and littoral combat vessels from bases in Bahrain out onto patrol duties, with YouTube videos uploaded daily by mine-clearance ships and littoral combat vessels patrolling. For further coverage on this story please check: Reuter’s and M. Economic Times are offering more insight.
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio called upon China to press Iran not to close the strait, warning this move could harm global economies — including that of China’s. On reuters.com he noted this could happen if any efforts to seal off a passage had a devastating impact. He warned investors.com of such impacts affecting investors in particular.
Global energy markets initially experienced volatility; however, analysts noted that an absence of disruption has helped calm investors. Brent crude briefly surged before retreating, as no mines actively blocked shipping lane access; as per The Times.co.uk (+11), Financial Times (+11) and Investors.com (+11).
Financial Times podcast host Bob Pifer described the current situation as being more symbolic in nature rather than direct confrontation, according to The Guardian’s coverage.
Iran’s Mine-Loading Protest Is Part of its A2/AD Strategy This mine-loading stunt by Iran fits within their larger anti-access/area-denial (A2/AD) strategy to deter Western intervention and protect regional interests, according to an extensive geopolitical context outlined at en.wikipedia.org and JPost.com report.
Similar tactics were utilized during the 1980s Tanker War, when mines and attacks targeted shipping vessels. U.S. and allied military assets in the Gulf region are crucial buffers against such efforts to threaten national security.
What Happens Next? At this stage, Tehran must decide if they intend to escalate further or maintain deterrence. Experts warn that even preparations to lay mines raise stakes and increase the risk of rapid escalation should a triggering event occur.
Iran reportedly maintains an estimated naval mine arsenal numbering thousands, along with missiles, UAVs and fast attack craft that threaten to close off the Strait of Hormuz. At present, however, Iran still poses a serious threat, which has been reported at being “thousands strong.” For more information about Iran’s naval mine arsenal see: ft.com oratlanticcouncil.org +4
Markets, navies and diplomats are currently carefully monitoring any developments that might disrupt global energy flows.